degentrading|6月 16, 2026 06:57
pre mkt thoughts 16 Jun 26
Yields inched up a few bps overnight. Asian markets were relatively flat as markets took the time to digest the gains made over the weekend into Monday. We have both KOSPI and NKY relatively unchanged for the day.
In memory, $285A was up 4% for the day, continuing to demonstrate strong performance. As i have repeatedly highlighted, NAND performance looks likely to continue to strengthen. Especially on AMD's acquisition of MEXT. The next bull case for flash and NAND is the replacement in DRAM workloads! SNDK
Policy wise - BOJ has raised its benchmark rate by 25bps to 1% AND we have Korea clamping down on overdrafts and margin debt. This will not directly impact us in the short term, however they will absolutely be a counter force in the rally to come.
Let me touch on Korea, first off - it is a market with ridiculously high volatility. There is also a ton of leverage in the system via levered single stock etfs/products. This has created tremendous rebalancing flows that acts as negative gamma in the space. Some may point to this and say that it is unsustainable - (you are right, it is not sustainable) - however we need to deeper appreciate the mechanics that this has evolved from - 50% weightage from SK Hynix and Samsung which are both correlated. This will mean the current dynamic will persist longer than what people think. The korea trade is effectively the memory/ai infrastructure trade.
In overnight markets, we also have SPCX making new ATHs off a strong rally. Like my note before, i said to NOT fade elon. You may not believe in it, you may think it is overvalued, however shorting it will result in pain - until you have enough tolerance to wait for the unlocks. There is a much better use of capital frankly. SPCX IPO will also produce a hot ball of capital and PnL that will rotate through the names. At this point, i would expect some of the momentum names to deflate as capital rotates into punting SPCX - however take note of these tickers because momentum will rotate back there....
With that... Good luck!(degentrading)
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