HIGER
HIGER|6月 16, 2026 03:41
Today, SPCX was quite aggressive during the night trading period in the US stock market, and my emotions were too high. I took profits and here is a simple review: 1. Is the valuation of SPCX high? In fact, although the FDV seems high, the circulation is only a little over 4%, raising 75 billion yuan. Compared to the subscription funds of over 300 billion yuan, early chips can be said to be very scarce. As expected, many people later participated in the cryptocurrency market institutions' US stock token sales and basically drew water from the basket. I also indirectly verified with my American classmates, and they only subscribed for one share, so most of the early chips were collected by institutions. Although many retail investors call themselves happy and say that their valuations are too high and they want to go short, the main force on Wall Street does not care about the faces of retail investors, but they can use their emotions to launder funds. 2. What is the income issue of SPCX? Many people, including some second - and third tier institutions on Wall Street, believe that SpaceX is losing money and that a market value of up to 700 billion yuan is reasonable. In fact, in addition to revenue from Starlink and space shipping, SpaceX has also signed long-term computing contracts with Anthropic and Google for several years. Therefore, based on the market to sales ratio, a valuation of 2 trillion yuan is not an exaggeration. This question is similar to the previous one, but it is purely based on data evaluation. Moreover, there is still room for imagination in the future, such as space computing power and Mars colonization. However, in the early stages after the IPO goes live, emotions and financial games are still the main focus. 3. How to grasp the rhythm of participation? I didn't participate too early. I only started intervening when Binance's pre-market contract and SPCX was trading at the bottom, so the risk should be relatively low. Although the cost is higher than that of an IPO, the problem should not be significant. In terms of rhythm, there is pure emotional hype before the market, which will not be discussed here. There are four main stages to consider after an IPO: 1) On the first day of IPO listing, during the game period, funds that have not been subscribed from outside are eager to rush in. Those who receive low-priced IPO chips may consider selling them. The game on the first day is crucial, and from the closing results, it is clear that a large amount of funds have rushed in; 2) On June 16th, which is today, option trading will be open. Prior to this, institutions have a strong willingness to establish positions; 3) In about a week, it will be announced whether SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100, which will further boost some institutional buying; 4) The time for performance announcement and first large unlocking. The above is also the information I found online. Considering that I am a short-term trader this time, coinciding with the time window of the option launch, my emotions were too high before the opening of the US stock market, so I chose to take all profits. 4. Regarding the Future of SPCX I am particularly optimistic about this stock, which is worth N times more than Tesla. Tesla did not participate at the time, but after the official integration of the cryptocurrency industry and the US stock market, it is finally very convenient to participate in the US stock market. There are too many analysis articles online about Musk's grand ideals and SpaceX's infinite future, so I won't repeat them here. Let me share my very personal thoughts. SpaceX is neither an AI company nor an airline, but a very complex and unprecedented form of company. Although it may seem like telling stories and drawing big cakes, its logic is coherent and there is enough room for imagination. In addition to Musk's will, I think there is also the national will of the United States. Currently, NASA has entrusted a large number of space missions to SpaceX, and female astronauts who were previously stranded in space still need to rely on SpaceX to retrieve them. Think about it, SpaceX's position and importance in the United States. Not only that, the biggest obstacle to the development of AI in the United States now is energy, which Musk has repeatedly mentioned on X before, and he often compares it with China's rapidly growing electricity. So, if the United States wants to completely shake off China in AI, Musk's plan to build energy and computing centers in space will receive support from American decision-makers. There is also a key issue, which is capital. At present, the US debt problem is too heavy to return. The US government cannot do the large-scale credit expansion and five-year plan like China. The US national will is being realized through top-level design+capital expenditure of private enterprises, and many future strategies of the country are realized by various private enterprises. So this must be a company worth long-term follow-up and attention.
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