Art of Speculation|Jun 16, 2026 01:29
Will this market value of 2.12 trillion to 3 trillion yuan arrive in just one day
What I originally thought was whether it would slowly rise to 3 trillion yuan and continue to speculate until it is included in the Nasdaq on July 7th. The result now is that the market is much crazier than I imagined.
Tomorrow the options will be launched, and there is a high probability of IV, so I plan to wait until a few days before being included in the Nasdaq before considering short positions.
Is it possible to charge towards 3.5 trillion or even 4 trillion before being included in the Nasdaq, and then hit again?
I used to think that doubling the market value of 2 trillion yuan per month was unimaginable. But after surging from 2.12 trillion to 3 trillion in one day today, I suddenly felt that doubling in three weeks seemed reasonable.
After observing for a while now, there are actually quite a few people who are bearish and want to short SPCX.
So I have always had a script in my mind:
Will it be like Circle, where it will first rush for three consecutive days, then consolidate at a high level, and then have a second wave, directly rushing until a few days before being included in the Nasdaq on July 7th.
Then sell the news and hit a wave first.
Add another low high before the financial report and trap the last group of people who are chasing the high.
Only after the lifting of stock restrictions and the release of a large number of chips, did we finally experience a true major decline.
Of course, this is just a deduction in my mind right now, it doesn't necessarily mean it will happen.
But there is some interesting data.
The Borrow rate was still 54% last Friday and has dropped to 8.75% today.
This does not necessarily mean the end of the market, it may just be a sudden increase in available bonds. But at least it shows that the cost of short selling is not as exaggerated as it was a few days ago.
Now with this type of ticket, I don't really want to predict the top.
Because the biggest risk is that it will rise to a level that everyone thinks is outrageous, and then tell you - the market never makes sense, so my short selling plan is to wait until a few days before entering the Nasdaq on July 7th.
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