星球日报|Jun 15, 2026 11:45
The probability of Trump agreeing to ease Iran's oil sanctions by the end of June has risen to 87% in Polymarket, up 12% in 24 hours
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket "Trump agreeing to lift Iran oil sanctions by the end of June" has risen to 87%, with a 12% increase in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are: if the United States agrees to lift, suspend, exempt, or otherwise reduce any sanctions that restrict Iran's oil exports before 11:59 pm Eastern Time on June 30, 2026, it will be judged as "yes", otherwise it will be judged as "no". The sanctions that restrict Iran's oil exports refer to the restrictions imposed by the United States on the production, sale, transportation, purchase, or export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products, or petrochemical products (including transportation, insurance, and financial transactions related to such exports). If the following conditions are met, it shall be deemed that the United States has agreed to lift, suspend, exempt or reduce such sanctions: 1. Trump or other authorized representatives of the United States government publicly announce that the United States has finally agreed to lift, suspend, exempt or otherwise reduce any sanctions restricting Iranian oil; 2. The cancellation, suspension, exemption, or reduction of any such sanctions has been included in the formal treaties or agreements between the United States and Iran, including those reached through signing or other formal means. Trump posted on social media today: "The agreement with Iran has been reached. Congratulations everyone! I hereby fully approve the free passage of the Strait of Hormuz and authorize the immediate lifting of the US Navy's blockade on Iran. Ships from all over the world, set sail. Let oil flow!" Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the predictive market and see changes before pricing.
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