Trump's wish, which he shouted for almost a month, has been fulfilled The United States and Iran have reached a preliminary framework, which will be officially signed in Switzerland on Friday, June 19, 2026. The core content includes: stopping direct military actions between the United States and Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, gradually lifting the blockade on Iranian ports/sea transportation by the United States, and then continuing to discuss truly thorny issues such as Iran's nuclear program, enriched uranium inventory, and sanctions lifting in the next 60 days. I don't think TACO will happen this time, right? There are some details to pay attention to here: Why did I immediately change direction last Thursday and Friday, indicating that a temporary rebound is coming and there is hope for the bulls. The core issue of macro impact is highly likely to be resolved (the US Iran agreement has solved the energy shortage problem) But these are temporary, this memorandum is just a temporary agreement, this is a negotiation window for a ceasefire and peace between the United States and Iran, and there are many variables that can truly be reached So this positive news is also temporary, there are still 4-5 days before the signing, and there are short-term variables (low probability) But the final ceasefire agreement is difficult to determine within the next 60 days This is a buffer window that both parties currently need The details are: Iran wants to monetize its Hormuz, both sides need to step down, the United States wants to open oil ports, reduce inflation, and protect its allies, and Trump wants reputation The difficulty in reaching a final agreement is due to significant differences in conditions and positions, such as the sovereignty of Hormuz, missile and proxy issues, Israeli variables, and Iran's high price reconstruction conditions of 300 billion yuan. These may change at any time within 60 days. In summary, this time can only be understood as a short-term good news. The US stock market, cryptocurrency, and gold are all short-term good news. The memorandum has been implemented, and if combined with the FOMC and Walsh's press conference this week, it will be a good rebound market in the following weeks. But this does not mean that there will be long-term positive news in the future. After the positive news is implemented, oil prices will fluctuate around 70, and it is unlikely to return to pre war prices. So oil prices starting with the number 7 are suitable for anticipating the rebound opportunities brought about by uncertain factors. When the macro direction is relatively clear, making advance layouts is very beneficial for holding positions and gaining profits. If we hadn't laid out low and long positions in advance last week to see the short-term benefits in the future, the conditions for getting on the road could easily affect our holding mentality The above are the views on the fundamentals of this event! BTC XAU OIL