The US and Iran have reached another agreement, and the crude oil contract has fallen below 80. To be honest, since 2.28, especially since the US Iraq peace talks began in mid April, the news of reaching an agreement has been read for many times and turned over for many times. This time may seem like the most real one, but the final result will still be influenced by four major factors: How to deal with Iran's enriched uranium How to control Israel's independence 3. Detailed rules for the opening of the strait How to solve the Lebanon issue First of all, from the time line, it's Trump's 80th birthday and the eve of the FOMC meeting. Both he and his team have strong motivation to quickly solve the Iranian problem and lower the oil price From the actual situation, the news that has emerged now is that the United States has agreed to allow Iran to dilute its stockpile of enriched uranium, and the relevant mechanism will be discussed in the next 60 days. Equivalent to verbal loosening and continuing to delay and buffer the biggest controversial issues for resolution. Whether Trump can really give up Israel and whether Netanyahu can really wait for his death is always a big question. Judging from yesterday's attack, Bibi is still that Bibi, which is not easy to change. From the final outcome, signing a contract does not mean fulfilling it, the contract is meant to be torn apart. But when the signing is officially announced, there will definitely be a big drop in oil prices. It is difficult to return to below 68 before the war, but the number 7 is not a dream. In the short term, around 75 may be a good position to buy at the bottom and go long. But if Trump really has the ability to settle all parties, come up with an agreement that will appeal to Iran and carry it out, then the oil price may fall below 60 for a long time, and the Federal Reserve will really cut interest rates and win the mid-term elections. But then again, if Trump had the ability and execution, the war would not have happened at the beginning, right?