Written before the release of CPI in May Tonight at 20:30, the US May CPI data will be released, and the market's focus is on the broad CPI, which is the annual CPI rate. The previous value was 3.8%, and the market expectation is 4.2%. The Cleveland Fed's expectation is 4.18%, which is 4.2%. This means that the market's detailed inflation in the United States will return to the era of 4%. What is the significance of this? This is the highest value in the United States since May 2023, and also represents a sustained decline in inflation that has been traded in the market over the past year, which may be re adjusted. What the market is most afraid of now is that inflation has not completely come down, but the economy is not so bad that it must immediately cut interest rates. This will put the Federal Reserve in an awkward position, wanting to cut interest rates but not allowing inflation. I want to continue to suppress inflation, but high interest rates will also suppress the economy and risk assets. So tonight's CPI can be put simply. If the CPI is higher than 4.2%, it is clearly bearish. The market will reprice the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. US bond yields and the US dollar are likely to be the first to react, with the Nasdaq AI、 Assets such as US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin will all face pressure. Especially for Bitcoin, the biggest short-term concern is the tightening of liquidity expectations. Once the market feels that interest rate cuts will be pushed back, ETF buying and risk appetite will be affected. If the CPI basically meets 4.2%, it is also difficult to say that it is a good thing. Because CPI above 4% itself is difficult to reassure the Federal Reserve. If the CPI is below 4%, then the market may breathe a little sigh of relief. Of course, it would also be helpful if Trump could achieve a comprehensive ceasefire with Iran or at least open the Strait of Hormuz before the CPI was announced. And today's CPI may make trusted Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh very uncomfortable. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout