[The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in June is 96%] According to CME 'FedWatch': The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in June is 96%, with a 4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in July is 82.3%, with a 14.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut.