qinbafrank|6月 04, 2026 01:16
SpeceX is about to conduct a roadshow, and the effect of capital extraction is beginning to emerge. Last night, the US stock market began to adjust, and from a personal perspective, the main driving factor is SpaceX's roadshow starting today. On Monday, we also discussed that during the roadshow period of the next two weeks, the capital rotation and withdrawal effects will be revealed in advance, rather than waiting until the day of IPO.
Secondly, the impact of the situation in Iran. The two sides have not yet made it clear: the Iranian side announced the four stage plan for negotiations with the United States, but Trump has not yet accepted the statement that "a more moderate fire is a ceasefire", which will also raise market concerns. The non farm data in May released on Friday and the inflation data in May released on the 10th of next Wednesday naturally also have hedging actions.
Future focus,
1) Friday's non farm payroll unemployment rate data, preferably with new non farm payroll in line with or slightly below expectations, and unemployment rate in line with or slightly above expectations; This will not increase the expectation of interest rate hikes.
The current labor market data can determine whether to raise interest rate expectations, but the real factor that can affect the Fed's decision-making is the trend of inflation.
2) So the most important thing is next Wednesday's inflation data, and the key is core inflation. Broad inflation, including energy and food, should still rebound. The trend of core inflation excluding energy and food will let the market see whether the inflation effect brought by high oil prices has spread to the service industry, which is the key.
It is best if the year-on-year or month on month core inflation meets or falls below expectations, so that the market does not have to worry about inflation spreading from energy to the service industry.
3) Next Friday, the 12th, SpaceX will officially go public. In the short term, the tight financial situation has eased, and many subscription funds or locked in funds have flowed back (oversubscribed funds have been released).
Simply put, at the funding level, we will look at SpaceX's roadshows and subscription status, as well as waiting for the official IPO;
The inflation trend will depend on next Wednesday's CPI data, and of course, the core is whether the progress of the US Iran negotiations can further drive down oil prices.
This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'
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