What’s the probability of BTC rebounding to 75,000? Is the rebound an opportunity to add short positions?

BTC is currently around 73,600, trading in a narrow range for several consecutive days. Many people are asking: Can it still rebound to 75,000? My personal judgment: The probability is only 30-35%, meaning “it’s possible, but it needs a catalyst, and even if it gets there, it’s a zone to add short positions.” 1. Why is it possible? The U.S.-Iran 60-day ceasefire memorandum has reached a consensus in principle. If Trump formally approves it, it could trigger a short-term spike. After a five-wave decline on the 4-hour chart, there’s a technical need for a rebound. Short covering could also provide short-term momentum. 2. Why is it unlikely? The 74,200-74,250 range has been rejected three times, with each rebound hitting lower highs: 78,000 → 76,800 → 74,200. ETFs are seeing continuous net outflows, with no new capital inflows. The 20-day moving average around 74,800 is acting as resistance. The World Cup kicks off on June 11, and Japan’s interest rate hike countdown on June 16 adds macroeconomic pressure. 3. Probability distribution of rebound levels: Failing to reach 74,500: 45-50% Reaching 74,500-75,500 and then pulling back: 30-35% Breaking through 75,500 and continuing upward: 10-15% 4. Trading strategy: At the current level of 73,600, stay on the sidelines—don’t chase longs. If it rebounds to 74,500-75,500 and shows bearish signals, start building short positions in batches. Stop loss at 76,000, with targets at 72,500 → 71,500 → 70,000. 5. Final reminder: 75,000 is a “visible but likely unreachable” level. Even if it’s reached, it’s a bull trap and a golden opportunity to add short positions—not a reason to chase longs. This is not investment advice, for reference only. Trade at your own risk. For an in-depth analysis of the mid-term market, check out the article below #BTC #Bitcoin #ThreeDimensionalTradingAnalysis #Wave5Starting