Art of Speculation
Art of Speculation|May 27, 2026 20:44
IREN's first target at 65 has been reached, and the higher high, higher low structure is established. In the short term, we'll see if it consolidates at the high or directly pushes upward—this part is uncertain. The next target is 77. In my previous posts, I mentioned that there's a high probability of signing the SW1 contract in June. As for who they'll sign with, my prediction is Anthropic. If the contract is signed between early to mid-June, we could see a big green candle, potentially a 20%-30% jump in a single day. If it’s not signed, the target remains the previous high at 77. For now, let's aim for that, and once it’s reached, you can consider reducing some positions. The dark pool and large order buy/sell volumes are roughly balanced, so this doesn’t provide much insight. Now, let me share some data on options: The premium for calls is far higher than for puts. Total call premium: $131.68M; total put premium: $31.07M. Calls are 4.24 times higher than puts. Normally, a ratio above 2 indicates bullish sentiment, and above 4 shows clear risk appetite. The number of call contracts is also much higher than puts. Call contracts: 181,270; total put contracts: 52,215. Call/Put contract ratio: 3.47. Big money is chasing calls, and retail investors are following suit. Overall, the market is betting on continued upward movement. But keep in mind, when everyone is frantically buying calls, implied volatility (IV) gets expensive. Market makers will continuously hedge by buying stocks, which pushes the stock price higher. However, if there’s no new positive catalyst or if broader market risk appetite declines, calls could face a reverse stampede. Fast gains can lead to fast losses. Key dates to watch: June 8th to see if SW1 announces the contract signing, June 12th for SpaceX’s reaction post-IPO, and June 18th for the Fed meeting and OPEX week. These are the critical time points. For now, there’s still some time before a major move. After breaking the previous high at 65, the next target is the 2025 high at 77.
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