Today's market Walking is so boring, let's talk about the general direction of the recent market today . ---------------- The reason for the recent bearish trend: Since the day of MSTR's financial report, the probability of MSTR selling BTC by the end of this year has increased from 12% before the report to over 70% since Michael Saylor revealed the possibility of selling BTC. So since the second day of the earnings conference, the funds of the US ETF have been shifting from net inflows to net outflows. Basic continuous net outflow until now. But the good thing is that although ETF funds continue to flow out, long-term holders on the chain have not sold on a large scale, and in recent times, they have only sold short-term profit and loss orders So now it's a mild outflow and there's no panic yet. So from the current perspective on the chain, it is still in a mild repair stage and has not yet reached the stage of panic and meat cutting decline. In the short term, there is no risk of a large-scale downward impact from the data. --------------- Two institutional research reports have summarized a pattern in recent months, due to the latest feature of MSTR and STRC's snapshot interest settlement before the 15th of each month. Usually before the 14th, people in the market will buy STRC. If the price of STRC is higher than 100, MSTR can send more STRC to raise funds to buy BTC So for a period of time, MSTR has been buying aggressively before the 15th of each month. After the 15th, they will recuperate for a period until the end of the month or the beginning of the next month, and then plan the next wave of STRC fundraising and purchases before the 15th of the next month. So over the past week, the purchase of MSTR has also been relatively calm. ----------------- We can also see from the options (refer to the previous options data) that there has been a recent low wave, and the market has not strongly priced the next trend, so feedback on the price has been small fluctuations this week. ---- So currently, guessing the direction from the band is not very meaningful Just rub a little bit within a day .. The next move depends on the ETF and MSTR. MSTR's strong performance in STRC fundraising will take until around the first or second week of next month. At the same time, ETF outflows are expected to intensify or reverse. On chain, it depends on whether long-term holders are accelerating their outflow. At present, these are all in a mild and mutually reinforcing state So there is no direction.