⚠️ Kind reminder: BTC's narrow range oscillation is gaining momentum, is it the calm before the storm or the strong resistance of bulls Dear friends, Bitcoin has been moving horizontally between 76500-77500 for two consecutive days, like a taut spring. The market seems calm and there will be no major drop. Neither long nor short dare to move. The Air Force is afraid of a sudden gap, and many troops are afraid of a sharp drop. Both sides are waiting - waiting for Walsh to take office tomorrow, waiting for Iran's next move, waiting for the door of 75000 to be kicked open. The more calm it is, the more terrifying the future market will be! 1、 Market Status: Not bottoming out, waiting for death!! The 4-hour chart shows consecutive cross lines and small entity candlesticks, with trading volume shrinking to the ground level. This is not a long short balance, it's' neither dare to move '. The bearish trend on the daily chart remains unchanged - prices are still below the 200 day moving average, which is in a bearish pattern, and the MACD death cross green bar has not shortened. The 5-day moving average has crossed the 13 day moving average, indicating extremely weak short-term momentum. This is not building a foundation. The bottom is naturally formed when it cannot fall, not when it crosses. 2、 75000 is the real battlefield of long short game! 75000 is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and also the CME futures gap zone (75500-76000). There are a large number of long leveraged positions near 75500. If the price falls here first, it will trigger a chain liquidation; If they rebound first, these bulls will be rescued. This is the prisoner's dilemma for both long and short sides: whoever takes action first may be killed by the other side. 3、 Walsh's inauguration (May 22nd): See you tomorrow! Kevin Walsh will be sworn in as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve tomorrow. Historical pattern: Within three months of the new chairman taking office, the average yield on US Treasury bonds rose by 50 basis points. At present, the 30-year US Treasury bond is at 5.16% and the 10-year bond is at 4.63%. If he sends a hawkish signal and the US Treasury breaks through 4.7%, there is a high probability that 75000 will not be able to hold on. If it leans towards pigeons, there may be a "boot landing" rebound. The market never bets on uncertainty. The sideways trend is waiting for this. 4、 What are current institutions doing? ETF had a net outflow of $1.07 billion last week, with a single day outflow of $649 million on May 18th. Coinbase premium continues to be negative, with US funds selling. But the exchange reserves have dropped to a seven-year low, and long-term holders are locking up their positions. The number of wallets holding 100-1000 coins is increasing, while the number of addresses with tens of thousands of coins is decreasing - are large funds being split or reduced? It's all possible. Short term bearish, long-term structural analysis. 5、 Prediction of Three Subsequent Trends of Bitcoin Approach 1 (45%): First drop to 75000-75500, trigger liquidation, and then rebound to 77000-78000. Kill the bulls first, then the bears. Approach 2 (35%): Directly drop below 75000 and accelerate to 72000-73000. The US debt has broken 4.7%, Iran is in trouble, and the Bush hawks are shooting three arrows at once. Method 3 (20%): Rebound directly to 78000-79000. Walsh pigeon+ETF return, low probability. 6、 Trading strategies for reference only The current position is 76800, not moving. It is not recommended to go long, unless it is a short-term fast in and fast out short long. Wait until the rebound reaches 77500-78500 and there is a bearish signal, then go short in batches with a target of 76000 → 75000. Continue to hold the mid line short position, with a target of 75000 → 72000. Non investment advice, profits and losses are self funded. 7、 Warm reminders never go out of style A sideways trend is not rest, it is the silence before a storm. 75000 is the final line of defense. Tomorrow when Walsh takes office, the answer will be revealed soon. Bitcoin BTC Market Analysis: The 5th Wave Begins, Warsh Employed 75000 Defenders War