The Kobeissi Letter|May 20, 2026 02:50
US oil refineries are producing more jet fuel than ever before:
The jet fuel output yield at US refineries is up to a record 12.7%, up +2.2 percentage points since the Iran War began.
This measures the proportion of each barrel of crude oil that a refinery converts into aviation fuel.
As a result, in volume terms, US refiners are producing ~250,000 more barrels of jet fuel per day than a year ago.
This comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off ~400,000 barrels of aviation fuel per day.
The global jet fuel market accounts for less than 7.5% of total oil demand, meaning relatively minor shifts in refining output or airline consumption can produce a significant impact on supply and prices.
US refiners are emerging as the main beneficiaries of a tightening jet fuel market.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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