⚠️ Walsh's first gift after taking office: The U.S.-Iran conflict remains unresolved, and the Fed's expectation of a rate hike this year has risen to 80%! The three triggers for a rate hike are also quite clear: 1. Long-term inflation expectations become unanchored; 2. Core inflation remains persistently high even after the tariff shock fades; 3. Demand outpaces supply, especially with the AI investment cycle and wealth effect kicking in before productivity gains are realized. Considering the fundamentals and market signals, the possibility of rate cuts throughout 2026 has basically been ruled out.