Kind of terrible for society if the judge in this case can print money and instantly retire by throwing a shock result. Prediction markets are really cool, and even insiders help with information signalling. My only problem is when the market affects reality. It's already happened quite a few times on a smaller scale. Without this market, the Elon case would probably play out the most likely way. With markets like these, people in power are incentivised to generate less likely outcomes in the world, so that they can receive massive payouts. Sort of like that one US navy commander who kept redirecting ships to certain ports in exchange for hookers and sex parties, while costing the Navy tens of millions of dollars. A judge throwing a multibillion dollar case that determines the direction of history just to get a six figure payout isn't too dissimilar. (Obviously not saying this will happen in this case specifically; it's just the sort of structure we as a society are creating for various things. As time goes on, there will be at least a few massive events that completely flip and change the direction of humanity due to the existence of a market around it and people with deciding power intentionally creating less likely outcomes to profit.) Weird times ahead, I guess.(FatMan)