A few days ago, after discussing the CPI and PPI data, I was quite worried about the possibility of such a mishap. However, the response from the US stock market has always been positive. I even thought that the US stock market may have become too FOMO, after all, the current macro data looks very bad. The US oil prices have risen, inflation has risen, and geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved. Although the US stock market has been rising again, the 10-year US Treasury bonds have already reached 4.56%, and the 20-year and 30-year US bonds have exceeded 5.1%. The market is not only worried about the Fed not cutting interest rates, but also about long-term financing costs. I don't know if today's decline is due to a sudden realization of macroeconomic downturn or because the visit to China did not yield clear results, but regardless, the pressure on the bond market is gradually increasing. At present, it is no longer a matter of whether or when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, but rather the possibility of a recession. The upper end interest rate will suppress the US Treasury. The US Treasury Department needs to continue issuing bonds for financing, with higher interest rates resulting in higher interest expenses. The higher the interest expenses, the larger the deficit. The larger the deficit, the more bonds will be issued in the future, and the higher the market demand for term premium. This is why Trump has always asked the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. But at present, even if the inflation is replaced by Walsh, it is impossible to cut interest rates immediately. Of course, the U.S. stock market can continue to rely on AI and earnings. But the premise is that oil prices cannot continue to drive up inflation, PCE cannot continue to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve cannot turn into a hawk again, the long-term debt auction cannot continue to be weak, and the U.S. dollar liquidity cannot be significantly tightened. Otherwise, it is highly likely to be a recession. Then start over. Bitget is here, VIP! Crypto、 US shares CFD， Global Advantage One Stop Layout