深潮TechFlow
深潮TechFlow|May 12, 2026 10:52
**[Wintermute Weekly Report: BTC Breaks $80,000, But Concerns Over Uptrend Structure Persist]** Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on May 12, Wintermute released its weekly market analysis. As of the week ending May 11, BTC broke $80,000 for the first time since January, reaching a peak of approximately $83,000 and effectively surpassing the 200-day moving average that had suppressed prices for seven months. However, Wintermute pointed out that this rally was primarily driven by leverage—open interest surged by $10 billion in a single month to $58 billion, while spot trading volume remained at a two-year low. This is characteristic of a short squeeze rather than a healthy breakout signal. Funding rates remain predominantly bearish, suggesting further short-term squeeze potential, but covering shorts does not equate to genuine bullish consensus in the market. From a medium- to long-term perspective, institutional buying logic remains intact: ETFs saw a net inflow of $623 million in a single week, Morgan Stanley's BTC ETF attracted $194 million in its first month without any single-day outflows, and exchange BTC reserves remain at a seven-year low. However, Wintermute cautioned that the RSI has entered the overbought zone, and if spot buying fails to follow after the squeeze ends, prices could face the risk of a rapid pullback. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. stock indices performed strongly, with the Nasdaq up 4.5% and the S&P 500 up 2.3%, both reaching all-time highs. Nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations (115,000 vs. forecasted 65,000). Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran negotiations broke down, with Iran's demands for sovereignty and compensation rejected by Trump. Oil prices fluctuated sharply between $88 and $113 during the week, but the stock market reaction was muted. This week, attention will focus on Tuesday's CPI data and Thursday's policy uncertainty following Powell's term expiration and Warsh's succession.
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