Has the bear market bottom been locked in advance? Why October 2026? 1/Core logic: BTC, as a high-risk asset, did not fall out of a bear market bottom, but rather emerged from it. It is highly anchored to the Federal Reserve's monetary cycle: End of interest rate hike+bottoming out of high interest rates=bottoming out period Expected interest rate cut 3-6 months in advance=confirmed bottom Iron rule: The bottom will always be ground out in advance before the interest rate cut is implemented. 2/Review the first two complete bull bear cycles and find a fixed time pattern First round: 2018-2019 cycle The final round of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve ends in the second half of 2018 Bitcoin bear market ultimate bottom: December 2018 The Federal Reserve's first subsequent interest rate cut: July 2019 The bottom appeared shortly after the end of the interest rate hike, exactly 7 months before the first interest rate cut Second round: 2022-2023 cycle Super high inflation, violent interest rate hikes Market speculation leads to inflation peaking and interest rate hikes slowing down So we hit the bottom half a year in advance, waiting for the last interest rate hike Bitcoin bear market ultimate bottom: November 2022 Macro situation in May 2026 Current situation: Interest rate hikes have come to a complete end, with high interest rates hovering at high levels. Expectation: The market consensus is that the first interest rate cut will occur between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. 4/Ultimate Bottom Time Deduction for This Round According to the tradition of fermenting 3-6 months ahead of expected interest rate cuts: The interest rate cut at the beginning of 2027 points backwards to October 2026, which is the resonance window of liquidity, sentiment, and pricing game. 5/Summary: Don't dwell on falling to tens of thousands, first block the time window of October 2026. Time scale>price scale. Patience is the greatest Alpha. BTC Bitcoin Crypto Bitcoin Federal Reserve