小龙先生|5月 09, 2026 23:56
This AI big cycle analysis and track stocks are quite valuable references:
The AI super market can last for 15 years, but it has only reached its third year now.
Ordinary retail investors are still flocking to buy stocks in the first stage, while truly smart big funds have already quietly laid out the third stage.
I divided this entire cycle into four stages and also compiled the most noteworthy US stock targets for each stage.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta each invested over $100 billion. This wave of AI super market is the biggest investment trend of our lifetime. It is larger than that of mobile Internet and cloud computing. The major changes in the industry landscape over the past 15 years will reshape various industries worldwide. The capital expenditures invested by major tech giants in 2026 amounted to $725 billion, which is twice as much as last year.
I have divided the entire AI cycle into four stages to give you a clear understanding of where you are currently at and where there are high cost-effective opportunities to make money.
Phase 1: The market has already finished (2023-2025)
AMD rose 78% in 2025, Nvidia rose 39%, Intel's first quarter financial report exploded, directly leading the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to break through 10000 points for the first time. The market for underlying hardware infrastructure has come to a complete end.
Although the chip still runs through the entire process, the main wave of the first phase has long ended, and now the cost-effectiveness and risk of entering the market are very low.
Current situation: The underlying infrastructure layout has been completed, and although it is still growing, the stock price has already capitalized on the positive factors.
Related subjects: Nvidia AMD、ARM、 Intel, Broadcom, Micron, Corning cover the fields of semiconductors, storage memory, optoelectronic/optical modules
Phase 2: Peak Construction Period (2025-2027)
Corning has seen a 74% increase in demand for fiber optic cables so far this year. Most investors are only now reacting belatedly to this stage. CEG acquires Calpine, becoming the largest private power company in the United States with an installed capacity of 55GW; GEV skyrockets more than twice in a year; VRT specializes in providing cooling solutions for NVIDIA Rubin architecture;
This sector still has room for growth, but well-known stocks have already risen. Small modular nuclear power has become a hidden dark horse, and companies such as OKLO, SMR, and BWXT are all laying out direct power supply for data centers.
Highlight: Small modular nuclear power is a severely underestimated potential track.
Related subjects: CEG, GEV, VRT, VST, TLN, ANET, Corning, MOD, EQIX, OKLO, SMR, BWXT, NNE Coverage tracks: power grid, server cooling, network equipment, peak of small modular nuclear power construction
Phase 3: Best Layout Window Period (2026-2028)
AI is no longer limited to data centers and is beginning to enter the real physical industry. The vast majority of people will follow the trend later.
KTOS's Valkyrie drone has been selected for procurement by the United States Marine Corps. Tesla has converted its Fremont factory into a humanoid robot Optimus production line, investing $250 billion to expand production, with plans for mass production in the second half of 2026; Rocket Lab's revenue reached a new high of 602 million US dollars, with orders on hand reaching 1.85 billion US dollars; LUNR has risen by 47% so far this year, holding $943 million in cooperative orders;
Now is the golden opportunity to lay out the third stage track.
Core: This stage is the opportunity with low risk and strong explosive returns.
Related subjects: Tesla, Rocket Lab LUNR、KTOS、AVAV、PATH、 Intuitive Surgery, MP, FCX, ALB, ASTS coverage tracks: Robotics and Autonomous Driving, Aerospace and Military Drones, Rare Earth Resources
Phase Four: Ultimate Closing Pattern (after 2028)
The final stage of the industry's destiny.
Google Cloud's current orders have exceeded 460 billion US dollars. Microsoft invests 190 billion in capital expenditures, Google invests 190 billion, Amazon invests 200 billion, and Meta invests 145 billion.
Whoever controls the software platform ecosystem can reap the dividends of the entire AI super cycle. Major giants are building underlying ecosystems, seizing the discourse power of AI software, and laying out general artificial intelligence AGI. Quantum computing is still in its early stages, but IONQ and D Wave have already laid the foundation in advance.
Operation strategy: When the market experiences a pullback, gradually buy low and layout.
Related targets: Microsoft, Google, Amazon Meta、 Oracle and IONQ cover the race track: AI software ecosystem leader, AGI underlying infrastructure (long-term holding logic for ten years)
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