BTC Evening Analysis 5/3: Weekly Close Looks Great, But Don’t Celebrate Too Soon BTC closed this week near $78,300, consolidating above $78K after three consecutive days of gains. The most noteworthy part is the weekly chart—a long lower shadow with a solid close above the Bollinger middle band at $76,589. In technical analysis, this pattern is called a pin bar, which signals "smart money" buying at the lows. Bears had a rough week getting wiped out. Looking at on-chain data and capital flows, last week saw $630M net inflows into spot ETFs, large wallet addresses added 41,000 BTC, and the Treasury injected $35B in liquidity. Short-term data doesn’t look bad at all. But the macro picture is under pressure. The Fed has held rates steady for three consecutive meetings, while the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5%. Powell is about to step down, and his successor, Warsh, is more hawkish. Markets are already pricing in no rate cuts this year and even potential hikes next year. JPMorgan’s outlook is blunt: rate cuts won’t happen until the second half of 2027. This continues to weigh on all risk assets. In the Middle East, Iran proposed a 14-point ceasefire plan, but Trump outright said it’s "unimaginable to accept" and approved $8.6B in emergency arms sales to allies. Oil prices have surged 50% compared to pre-conflict levels, and there’s no sign of the Hormuz Strait blockade being lifted anytime soon. Inflation expectations are being propped up by oil prices, leaving the Fed with little room to ease. In the short term, $78K is holding up well, with ETF funds and whales buying in, and technicals leaning bullish this week. $80K is the first psychological barrier—if Monday’s open sees strong volume pushing past it, $85K-$90K could be in sight. But keep an eye out—any escalation in the Middle East or hawkish comments from Fed officials could easily disrupt this fragile bullish structure. Conclusion: Short-term bullish, but the upside is limited. Breaking past $80K will require real money to push through.