Feilong Daily | April 30, 2026 (1) Old Bao's farewell, internal rift within the Federal Reserve Last night at 2am, the FOMC interest rate remained unchanged, but there was significant disagreement Out of 12 votes, 8 support unchanged interest rates and 4 oppose, marking the largest divergence since 1992 1 vote believes that a direct interest rate cut should be implemented, while 3 votes believe that signals of easing should not continue to be released at this time On the one hand, I find the interest rate cut too slow One side thinks it's too loose too early Powell's view is that interest rates are already close to neutrality, but before cutting rates, we still need to see the energy conflict and tariff impact dissipate In addition, after Powell stepped down as chairman on May 15th, he will continue to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board until 2028. Powell did not fully retire and instead accompanied us in a different way (2) US and Iran heat up, oil prices skyrocket The oil price has skyrocketed again Iran says tough: if the US continues to blockade, unprecedented military action will be taken Understand Wang's harsh words: If you don't give up nuclear weapons, there will be no agreement From over $60 before the conflict to nearly $120 now, crude oil has almost doubled in two months Crude oil does not fall, inflation cannot come down If inflation doesn't come down, expectations of interest rate cuts won't rise If the expectation of interest rate cuts cannot be met, it will be difficult for risk assets to rise (3) Conclusion Now there are three things weighing on the market: Federal Reserve torn apart, oil prices skyrocketed, trading volume shrank The market is likely to fluctuate back and forth, and it is not suitable to rush into heavy positions Next, let's focus on two signals: Has there been a turning point in oil prices, and how has the policy stance changed since Walsh took office Before that, move less, watch more, don't worry A plan is brewing in May, wait and see!