Market Quick Report: Bitcoin Short to Medium Term Trend Analysis and Strategy Report (April 30th) Firstly, I would like to make my personal core judgment: Bitcoin is unlikely to rebound again to around 79500 in the future, with a high probability of rebounding to around 78000 and then breaking down directly, with a probability of 40-45%. After falling below 75700, it will accelerate its decline. 1、 Current disk status The price was blocked and fell back three times around 79500, with the high points decreasing successively (79388 → 79500 → 78200). The daily trading volume gradually decreases, and the 4-hour level has fallen below the upward trend line. The demand for spot goods continues to be negative, and this round of rebound is driven by futures, with a fragile structure. The order book of 80000-81000 still has about -90 million dollars worth of unsold wall. 2、 Core judgment The probability of the price rebounding to 79500 is about 35-40%, and even if it does, it will be the last time the fourth wave rises, with a high probability of a rebound. The higher probability (40-45%) is that after repeated oscillations in the range of 76000-79000, it will not break through 80000 and will directly turn downwards. 3、 Three path deduction Path 1: Rebound again to 79500 and then fall back, with a probability of 35-40%. The trend is 76000-78000. After accumulating momentum, it will rise to 79000-79500 and be blocked before falling back. Path 2: Directly break below the level, with a probability of 40-45%. The trend is that it cannot rebound to 79500, and then accelerates the decline after falling below 75700. Path 3: Breaking through 80000 in volume with a probability of 15-20% requires multiple positive resonances, and there is a high probability of a false breakthrough followed by a rapid decline. 4、 Mid line empty single strategy Layout area: 79000-81500 batch orders. Unified stop loss: 82500. Total position: 35-45%. Batch plan: The first tier is 79000-79500, with a position of 10-15%. The second tier is 79500-80500, with an additional inventory of 20-25%. Third tier 80500-81500, increase warehouse to 35-45%. Profit target: The first target is 72000-73000, the second target is 7000-71500, and the ultimate target is 45000-50000. 5、 Core principles If the price does not reach the target area, do not enter the market. If there is no short signal, do not add positions. Stop loss triggers all exits. The change window is from May 12th to 16th. Before that, watch more and move less.