星球日报|4月 27, 2026 02:40
[Polymarket Market Report: Top 10 Most Volatile Markets Among Over 20,000, with Cryptocurrency Events Accounting for 40%]
Odaily Planet Daily News: The third-party prediction market data platform Polysights posted on the X platform, analyzing over 20,000 Polymarket markets over the past six months and providing a volatility ranking. Key findings are as follows:
- Cryptocurrency-related markets account for four of the top ten, characterized by highly asymmetric information, with few able to make accurate predictions.
- Deadline anxiety emerges, with questions like 'Will X happen before [date]?' causing more volatility than 'Who will win?'.
- Market outcomes tend to favor 'Yes'—in markets exceeding $1 million, the probability of a 'Yes' outcome is 50%, compared to just 27% overall; when markets experience significant volatility, the final outcome is often 'Yes'.
- Mid-sized markets ($1 million to $7 million) represent a chaotic range; markets exceeding $10 million see smoother price trends due to the involvement of large capital.
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