Fed Rate Cut Expectations Analysis The Fed is unlikely to cut rates for at least another 6 months this year. The Middle East conflict driving up oil prices, high inflation, and weak consumer confidence have dashed hopes for rate cuts, pushing the timeline further out. Surveys show that over half of the economists polled expect the benchmark rate to remain at 3.50%-3.75% by the end of September; 71 respondents anticipate at least one rate cut this year (median: 1 cut), while nearly one-third expect rates to stay unchanged throughout the year (a doubling of the proportion). Fed Chair nominee Waller’s hearing statements did not alter rate forecasts. Economists believe that as a single decision-maker, he is unlikely to shift monetary policy and will need to build trust within the committee.