星球日报|4月 22, 2026 16:26
81% win rate account purchases $40000. Trump will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz until April 30th
Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel monitoring shows that in the Polymarket prediction event that "Trump will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz before April 30th," a certain account (@ Pajamapants) with an 81% winning rate purchased $40000. Trump will not stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz before April 30th, with an average opening price of 68.5 ¢. The specific rule is that if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce the end of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a designated date (11:59 pm Eastern Time), the market will turn "yes". Otherwise, this market will ultimately decide 'no'. The limited declaration must clearly and explicitly state that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date, or use equivalent clear language to explicitly state that the blockade has been lifted or will be lifted on a specified date (for example, a declaration that the United States Navy's activities in the relevant area have ceased meets the conditions). It is not enough to describe actions that are inconsistent with the blockade (such as "Iran resumes shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly stating the lifting of the blockade. Informal announcements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaks do not meet the criteria. Donald Trump's written public statements (such as posts on his personal Truth Social account) will meet the criteria. The videos he posts on social media will also meet the criteria for 'approval' of the resolution. The main solution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; However, credible consensus reporting can also be used. Note: The market will only be determined based on whether a qualified announcement is issued within the specified time. Whether the blockade is effectively implemented or whether maritime traffic has been restored, if announced unconditionally, will not be considered. Odaily Seer's Prophet channel continues to monitor and predict the market, seeing changes before pricing.
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