Just as expected, Trump went ahead and TACO-ed again. Iran is soft too—Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire, and Iran just followed along without even raising the stakes. Both sides are so in sync that they’re continuing the ceasefire without much negotiation. An indefinite ceasefire might be a short-term bullish signal, clearly proving that neither side actually wants to fight. The chances of a full-scale escalation are now even smaller than before. Lots of tough talk, but their actions are weak. However, in the mid-term—or even sooner, within a week or two—the market will gradually realize that an indefinite ceasefire is actually bearish.