qinbafrank|Apr 22, 2026 06:17
The second negotiation between the United States and Iran still failed. At the last moment of the ceasefire deadline last night, Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire, but the blockade continued. Iran agreed to suspend military fighting, but the war is still not over. The core is still what we talked about on Monday: in essence, neither side wants to continue fighting, but neither side has yet obtained the chips to completely suppress the other in the negotiations, and neither wants to loosen their grip on the terms. But as long as there is no further upgrade, the market can breathe a sigh of relief. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the United States' blockade of Iran's coastline are essentially an economic war of attrition. Iran's lifeline lies in the sustainability of its domestic economy, and Trump's lifeline lies in the duration of high oil prices. Time has actually slightly shifted towards the United States now.
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