Galaxy analysts warn that the CLARITY Act faces multiple obstacles, with a 50% chance of passing before the midterm elections BlockBeats News: On April 21st, Alex Thorn, the research director of Galaxy Digital, warned that the key cryptocurrency bill in the United States, the CLARITY Act, has entered a critical moment of success or failure. If the review is postponed until mid May, the possibility of passing it in 2026 will sharply decrease. At present, it is expected that the probability of the bill becoming law this year is about 50%, or even lower. Polymarket data also shows that its passing probability has decreased from 82% in February to 47%. Thorn pointed out that the Senate's schedule is currently filled with matters related to Iran's military authorization, funding for the Department of Homeland Security, and presidential nominations, leaving a tight deadline for the bill. If the Democratic Party regains control of the House of Representatives after the November midterm elections, legislative work may come to a halt. Although the bill was passed by a bipartisan margin of 294-134 in the House of Representatives in July last year, negotiations in the Senate are more complex and mainly face several obstacles. Firstly, the disagreement over stablecoin rewards was the main reason for the postponement of the review from January. Secondly, the clause in the draft that explicitly states that developers of unmanaged software do not belong to the category of "money transmitters" has been opposed by law enforcement agencies. In addition, in terms of ethical provisions, some Democrats are pushing to restrict government officials and their families from profiting from cryptocurrency assets during their tenure. Finally, concerns about the authority of the SEC and issues such as vacancies in committee seats have also added political complexity. Thorn believes that a full Senate vote in July is' theoretically possible ', but requires extraordinary political will and coordination.