BTC Mid-Term Price Trend Analysis (Around April 22) April 22 marks the expiration date of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which will impact Bitcoin's mid-term price trend: (1) Negotiations break down (bearish), 40-45% probability, price drops below 73,600, testing 70,000-72,000. The previous rebound high of 78,300 has peaked. (2) Ceasefire extension (neutral), 35-40% probability, price fluctuates in the 72,000-76,000 range, with a rebound high near 76,000. (3) Agreement reached (breakout), 15-20% probability, price rebounds to 78,000-79,500, with a rebound high near 79,500.