The recent plot of counterfeit coins flying around and demon coins flying around seems familiar. The market is flat, and imitations are flying around. Every day, people in the group take screenshots to share their profits. The last time this kind of scene appeared, I don't know if the ending is remembered by Sa Jia. The period in history when BTC and ETH remained stagnant while altcoins began to rotate. At that time, it was lively, but looking back later, it was the last dinner of local frenzy in the bear market. The market these days is almost a replica. ALPACA increased by 391% in 24 hours, ORDI 172%，BASED 116%，SIREN 72%。 I just wrote RAVE a few days ago, which controls 91% of the demon coins in the multi signature wallet. It has risen by 3900% in a week. When I finished writing that article, I thought it was a case study. Now it doesn't seem like it's true. RAVE just started, followed by SIREN and Binance Life ALPACA， Each one follows the same path. A set of rules has been summarized, and the lifecycle of alpha demon coins is fixed. Once it goes online, it will break. After the selling pressure ends, it will be held for a month to create a dead end line. Then, it will be held for another month before falling below the issue price and oscillating at a low level for a month. Wait until the previous monster coin runs out, then the next one starts to skyrocket and plummet. Kill the long and short positions, then start the big surge, kill the air force, and repeat. But the question I want to discuss now is bigger than just one demon coin: what does this wave of collective frenzy of counterfeit goods mean? In history, this stage of rampant counterfeiting usually took three steps. The first step is diffusion. The leading and strongest demon coins move first, and then the second tier, low-quality, and small market value begin to rebound. The market has entered a stage where anything can rise. The rotation of funds has accelerated, with new and small cap currencies collectively rising, and OI and trading volume both increasing. Now it seems that this stage is happening. RAVE pulled SIREN, SIREN pulled Binance Life, Binance Life pulled ALPACA. Change the protagonist every day. The second step is differentiation. When the chaos reaches a certain level, funds begin to prioritize quality. Those who truly have narrative, liquidity, and control over funds can still be repeatedly pulled, while those who are purely emotional and follow the trend are starting to fall behind. The leading position fluctuated at a high level, with a significant retreat in the middle and rear seats, and the gap between strength and weakness suddenly widened on the same day. RAVE fell 23% in one day on 4/15, while Binance Life fell 19% during the same period, but BTC remained almost unchanged. The scene of high-level demonic coins being inserted first and the market remaining unchanged is a signal of the beginning of differentiation. The third step is clearing. The high-level chips are starting to loosen, and the incremental funds cannot keep up. The market has entered a round of rapid deleveraging. Demon coins first enter the market at a high level, then rebound, and then decline, with many eventually falling back to the starting point of the main uptrend. Only a very small number of mainline assets can maintain their structure. My current guess is that this wave of shanzhai carnival is likely to be in the transitional period between the first and second steps. The spread is still ongoing (new demon coins emerge every day), but differentiation has already begun (the first demon coins are starting to loosen at high levels). Demon coins are flying wildly, and the market has reached a dangerous moment. What should we do then? My idea is to look at it in stages. In the early stage, look for the front hand spot (layout before most people have noticed), in the middle stage, do strong rotation (only follow the strongest, do not touch the weak), and in the later stage, wait for the back hand trigger (wait for the second chance after the differentiation is over). Once we enter the stage of "general increase+small ticket crazy increase+OI and fund rate overheating together", we need to shift our main task to defense. Can the general increase in small ticket prices last for another two or three days. Will the clearing and funding rates of high-level demonic coins begin to distort continuously. Once the dragon head stagnates, will the rear seats fall behind on a large scale. If there is a combination of widespread gains continuing to spread and frequent high position insertion and weak pullback in the future, I will define this wave as a frenzy at the end of the knockoff market, and it is time to reduce positions. One final sentence. After each round of shanzhai carnival, looking back, the ones who make money are always the earliest to enter and leave. Not the bravest person, but the most sober person.