The probability of Polymarket stating that the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before May 31st is only 37%, with a 9% drop within 24 hours Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" is only 37%, a decrease of 9% in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are: if the International Monetary Fund Port Watch publishes a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz ("vessel arrivals") equal to or greater than 60 on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be judged as "yes", otherwise the market will be judged as "no". The daily number of arrivals of transit ships includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll on/roll off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships that have not been reported by the International Monetary Fund's port observation will not be considered. According to Xinhua News Agency, the US military has announced that it will begin implementing a blockade in the Arabian Sea east of the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. Any unauthorized vessel entering or leaving the blockade area may be intercepted, diverted, and detained. In addition, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expressed support for Trump's decision to impose a maritime blockade on Iran and added that his government maintains comprehensive coordination with Washington on this matter. According to a video statement released by the Prime Minister's Office, Netanyahu stated during a cabinet meeting: "Iran has violated the rules, and President Trump has decided to implement a maritime blockade." "We certainly support this firm stance, and we are maintaining ongoing coordination with the United States." Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the forecast market and see changes before pricing.