WTI Crude Oil Market Analysis, April 13, 2026 Affected by the conflict, public commercial transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a halt due to the conflict, but a "shadow fleet" logistics system mainly operated by Iran to evade sanctions is still operating in secret, which has kept Iran's exports at an astonishing level of 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day, almost the same as before the war, while exports from countries such as Saudi Arabia have been severely affected. Trump threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to the breakdown of the peace talks due to the disagreement on the nuclear issue, this is also inseparable from the "shadow fleet" mentioned above. But if Trump really blockades the Strait, will Iran encourage Hussain armed forces to do things in the Red Sea? If Trump is not talking but acting seriously, the situation may get out of control step by step, but probably not Trump? Technically speaking, the black line represents a wave of decline and the corresponding rebound. Currently, the 106.575 is a new decline, which is of the same level as the first black decline. If we simply consider the decline from 106.575 as a three wave structure, then the blue line 106.575-85.525 represents the first wave of decline, and 85.525 has been running as a rebound against this period of decline (as shown in the blue box). After the rebound, there is a high probability that there will still be a decline of the same level as 106.575-85.525.