The softer-than-expected headline CPI print gave risk assets a green light 📈 However, the underlying details are less encouraging. Energy rose +10.9% MoM and gasoline +21.2% (the largest monthly increase since 1967), driven by supply shocks linked to the Iran conflict. Stable core inflation suggests the Fed is unlikely to hike in the near term. But energy inflation remains elevated, and any further supply disruption could push the next CPI print higher. Near-term positives are largely priced in ⚖️ The key variable from here is the Strait of Hormuz 🌍 The three scenarios outlined below, along with their probabilities, remain valid.(BloFin Research)