The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by May 31st in Polymarket has decreased to 43%, with a 12% drop in the past 24 hours Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before May 31" has significantly decreased, with a drop of 6% in one hour and 12% in 24 hours. The contract rules for this event are: if the International Monetary Fund Port Watch publishes a 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz ("vessel arrivals") equal to or greater than 60 on any date between market creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be judged as "yes", otherwise the market will be judged as "no". The daily number of arrivals of transit ships includes container ships, bulk carriers, roll on/roll off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Ships that have not been reported by the International Monetary Fund's port observation will not be considered. Pakistani media confirmed today that the Iranian delegation has arrived for negotiations, and the main talks between Iran and the United States will be held tomorrow. The negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan will focus on opening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire. In addition, the US delegation participating in the US Iran negotiations has departed for Islamabad, Pakistan, and US Vice President Vance has boarded the plane. Prior to departure, Vance expressed his anticipation for negotiations on the Iran issue and stated that US President Trump has provided "fairly clear guidelines" for the talks. Odaily Seer's Prophet channel continues to monitor and predict the market, seeing changes before pricing.