The probability of Trump announcing the end of military action against Iran before April 21 has dropped to 21%, a decrease of 22% in 24 hours, according to Polymarket Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's "Trump announcing the end of military action against Iran before April 21" has dropped significantly to 21%, a decrease of 22% in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of the "When Trump announced the end of military action against Iran" event contract has approached $17 million. The contract rules for this event are: if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operation against Iran launched on February 28, 2026 has ended before a specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be judged as' yes'; otherwise, the market will be judged as' no '. A statement that meets the criteria must clearly indicate that the action has ended. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information do not meet the criteria. Trump's public written statements (such as posts on his personal "Truth Social" account) will be considered valid statements, and videos posted on Trump's social media accounts will also be considered valid statements. The main criteria for determining this market are official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives, but consensus from other credible reports will also be considered. On the first day of the temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran taking effect, the Israeli military launched the largest airstrike against Hezbollah in this round of conflict. Iran claimed that it violated the ceasefire agreement, once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened to prepare for deterrent actions against Israeli military targets. The White House has announced that the first round of talks between the United States and Iran will be held in Pakistan on the 11th. However, Iran has stated that three key clauses of the 10 ceasefire agreements have been violated, and the "basis for negotiations" has been undermined. However, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Sayyid Khatibzad recently stated that the Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, to participate in the negotiations. Odaily Seer's Prophet channel continues to monitor and predict the market, seeing changes before pricing.