One success is called luck, and sustained success is called cognition This era never lacks myths of overnight wealth: Step on the property market, catch up with the Internet, speculate on money, step on a monster stock, and become popular by traffic... It's easy to rely on luck to succeed once, but it's definitely not luck that can last ten, thirty, or sixty years. What is true skill? It's not about betting on one trend, but about winning and making big money three, five, or ten times in a row, changing industries, crossing cycles, and going against the trend. Just like Buffett: Having been in charge of Berkshire Hathaway for over 60 years, its market value has increased by 55000 times, not through a single bull market, but through precise judgment time and time again. Stable profits over the past 60 years are not luck, but a result of ingrained knowledge in one's bones. In 1988, he bought Coca Cola and held it for 36 years, with an annual turnover of nearly 20%, relying on brand monopoly to cross the bull and bear market; In 2003, I bought PetroChina for 400 million US dollars and earned over 7 times the profit. Understanding the cycle and underestimation; In 2016, heavy holdings in Apple, treating technology stocks as consumer stocks, increased from 31 billion to 174 billion; Looking at Li Ka shing again: From plastic flowers to real estate, ports, energy, technology, spanning over half a century and more than a dozen industries, he has always been greedy when others are afraid, intervened countercyclically, and always stood in the winner's position during financial crises, Asian storms, and industry downturns. In 1986, with a sharp drop in oil prices, Husky Oil sold for HKD 3.2 billion and was criticized for taking over the market. Later, it earned over HKD 370 billion, with an annualized rate of 18%; I invested in Facebook in 2007 and Zoom in 2013, with an early focus on technology and returns of hundreds or thousands of times; Compared to those who were short-lived: Earn one wave by relying on the wind, and suffer losses in the next wave; By relying on luck to become popular, people quickly collapse; Relying on winning the lottery, making quick money, and ultimately falling into debt. Winning once is probability, winning again is ability; Occasional sudden wealth is luck, while continuous compound interest is cognition. Recently, many people blindly worship various big shots, but there's no need for it. More than 90% of big shots rely on luck, unless they can succeed multiple times in a row, time will prove everything.