2026.4.8 Macro Analysis Just like I predicted yesterday, Trump chickened out in the end, and the U.S. and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement. Oil prices plummeted 15%, U.S. stocks and crypto made a big rebound! Bitcoin broke through $72,000. The current suggestion is to sell off the assets you bought during the dip once it rises above $78,000, because the final ceasefire hasn’t been reached yet. There’s still a chance of back-and-forth tension, so don’t get overly optimistic. Expect new lows in the coming months! Even after the ceasefire, Israel and Iran are still firing missiles at each other. Both sides stated that they haven’t discussed the specific start time for the ceasefire. Will there be a final ceasefire in the future? Iran’s demands: Lift sanctions, war reparations, retain nuclear weapons/missiles, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.’s demands: No nuclear weapons, no missiles, full inspections, and free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t think so. The demands from both sides are inconsistent, so this is just a pause in hostilities, not a true ceasefire. What we need to do now is to cash out when the good news comes. To borrow a quote from Buffett: Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.