貝格先生🐢|Apr 08, 2026 02:07
The blue line has officially fallen below 60K: the consolidation time may be coming to an end .. ⚠️
In the last analysis post (quoted below), I discussed the current oscillation structure,
Compare with the lateral oscillation from June to August 2022.
During the consolidation period in 2022, BTC rebounded and peaked 63 days after touching the blue line;
And now, it has been 62 days since BTC first touched the blue line on February 5th this year .. ⏱️:
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The indicator in the attached figure is' STH-RP with deviation adjustment ', and the concept is reviewed as follows:
➡️ Calculate the mean and standard deviation of STH-MVRV since 2018
➡️ Multiply STH-RP by the mean ± n standard deviations of STH-MVRV
➡️ The reason for using data after 2018 as the calculation benchmark is that,
The reason is that STH-MVRV after 2018 exhibits significant mean regression characteristics.
Red line=STH-RP multiplied by the mean of STH-MVRV plus 1 standard deviation
Yellow line=STH-RP
Green line=STH-RP multiplied by "Mean of STH-MVRV -1 standard deviation"
Blue line=STH-RP multiplied by 'Mean of STH-MVRV -1.5 standard deviations'
Detailed concept explanation of the model: https://((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/1902195178993279264
Detailed historical review of "The Divine Power of the Blue Line": https://(((((((x.com))))/market_gegar/status/2018501752103047340
Detailed historical review of 'bottoming time': https://((((((((x.com)))))/market_gegar/status/202647449374989766
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The current model blue line is 59422
As shown in the attached figure:
With the passage of time, the price of the blue line has officially dropped below 60K,
This means that if the last tremor really appears, the blue line will also provide a helping hand along the way 」
Furthermore, as discussed in the previous analysis post, if we take into account the current trend,
Compared to the post consolidation structure of the bear market from June to August 2022:
➡️ 2022: After falling to the blue line, it rebounded for 63 days and peaked, then began a new round of main decline
➡️ Now: It is already the 62nd day since BTC first touched the blue line on 2/05
From a temporal perspective, just like the concept I have often mentioned in the past few months:
After a strong trend ends, the consolidation and repair period usually lasts between 1-3 months.
The emergence of extremely large quantities: the starting point of a new round of oscillating games (2026/02/10)
https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2021037913686016212
The horizontal consolidation time since BTC fell to 60K has now exceeded 2 months,
This fully demonstrates that we are in the middle to late stage of a horizontal consolidation period,
In other words, 'Perhaps it won't be too long before a trending trend emerges.' ⚠️」
Based on the technical perspectives I have shared multiple times over the past two months,
That is, script 1 (https://((((((((((((x.com))))))))/market_gegar/status/2037753112983941189) that is currently in fermentation,
I still tend to choose the final direction as' downward ' 」,
Only by cleaning up the liquidity below can we have the confidence to make every effort to bottom out.
74K short position continues to hold, waiting for the last tremble and preparing for a new round of trend market
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Related reading resources
The Last Trembling (8): Latest Data from the "Four Big Deep Bear Bottom hunting Models"
https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2039883216778305729
The 'Golden Pit One Step Away': The PSIP Periodic Bottom Signal is within reach
https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2020675527812792811
Mid to late stage of bear market: 'Realized profit&loss' ratio officially falls below 1
https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2025748410079519116
The 'Ten Year Unchanged Law': Waiting for the Periodic Bottom Signal of Massive Turnover
https://(((((((((x.com)))))))))/market_beggar/status/2036258342751076839
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