Tomorrow morning at 8 AM is the deadline for Iran's ceasefire agreement, but the chances are slim. Will Trump follow through on his promise of a full-scale strike? If he strikes, how will it play out? Crude oil will rise, while gold and $BTC will likely drop. If he doesn’t strike, gold and $BTC will continue to rise, and crude oil will pull back. The likelihood of a strike is high—Iran won’t accept such a ceasefire agreement, but Trump wouldn’t dare go all-in with a full-scale attack. At most, he’ll make a symbolic move to save face; otherwise, no one in the Middle East will take his warnings seriously in the future. So, over the past couple of days, $BTC hasn’t dared to rise, crude oil is holding strong, and gold is rebounding but struggling to move higher. Let’s wait for tomorrow’s deadline to play out. If I were to trade, I’d definitely start with the assumption that Trump will continue with the strike narrative—gold and $BTC drop, crude oil rises again. But I wouldn’t go all-in on a single direction. #XAU #OIL