BTC is ~715 days after the halving. This is not the end of the cycle, it’s the middle of it. We’re sitting in the “Hope” zone (NUPL ~0.24), which means there’s still profit in the system and no real capitulation yet. Previous cycles bottomed after 75–85% drawdowns. This one only pushed around 50% so far. The real flush hasn’t happened. From here, the market usually moves through distribution and then into a final capitulation. If that structure holds, the $35k–$40k area is still in play. What you’ll likely see before that: fake strength, sharp rejections, and a lot of chop that traps both sides. The final move doesn’t come with hope. It comes with panic. https://www.decentrader.com/alpha-bitcoin-cycle/(Decentrader)