Based on the latest updates, we can draw one conclusion: the US-Iran peace talks have already entered the stage of bargaining over concrete terms, even earlier than expected. You might remember that even as recently as last week, Iran was frequently putting out news about rejecting talks or having no contact. But now, they've submitted 10 written responses via Pakistan, compared to the previous 5 conditions. This shows that negotiations are indeed happening, and the plans are becoming more detailed. Iran's core focus is on permanently ending the war rather than just a ceasefire. This hints at key issues like denuclearization and lifting sanctions. Plus, Iran doesn’t want the US and Israel to restock their ammunition and then start another round. A ceasefire like that would be meaningless and disadvantageous for Iran—it’d be better to keep fighting. Meanwhile, the US responded that Iran’s 10 demands are too high and might not help resolve the issue. Looking at the overall picture, Trump’s final ultimatum at 8 PM Eastern Time is very likely to be a TACO. With a day and a half left, there’s actually enough time to set up trades.