2026.4.6 Macro Analysis Good morning, bros! Oil prices are pulling back, $BTC is rebounding—let’s check out what’s going on: (1) U.S.-Iran Situation The Don has once again postponed the final ultimatum to 8 AM Beijing time this Wednesday. Axios reports that the U.S. and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement. In the past 24 hours, 15 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket data shows the probability of a ceasefire by the end of this month has risen from 18% to 31%, by the end of May from 34% to 42%, and by the end of June it’s already at 55%. (2) Watch Out for Traps Things seem to be moving in a positive direction, but we still need to stay cautious. The Don always drops good news on weekdays and bad news on weekends. Don’t go heavy before a real ceasefire is confirmed, but it feels like the war might be nearing its end. (3) World Cup The World Cup kicks off on June 11. Funds in the crypto space are shifting to the World Cup. April might see another peak, but May could bring an early crash a month ahead. After the World Cup ends, funds will flow back, forming a bottom and triggering a big rebound, followed by another drop. By the end of the year, we might see a historic bottom. #MacroAnalysis #Crypto #WorldCup #BTC #ETH