Oil prices are now crossing above $115/barrel in the US. As a result, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained another ~7 weeks, US CPI inflation will rise to ~3.7%. This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023. Amid the surge, Americans have spent an additional $240 million per day on fuel costs since the Iran War began on February 28th. That's a total of +$8.6 billion in increased spending on fuel over the last 36 days. Our new base case is 3.0% CPI inflation and it is only rising as the war's timeline is extended.(The Kobeissi Letter)