Murphy
Murphy|4月 05, 2026 05:11
"Can you believe it? The average cost of all losing positions right now isn’t $100K, isn’t $110K, but only $93,600! In other words, under the current loss structure, as long as BTC climbs back to $93K, the average losing position will break even (red line in the chart). Although there are still many positions trapped above, it’s clear that during the two sharp drops at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-level trapped positions chose to cut their losses and exit, which lowered the average cost of all losing positions. This is what we usually refer to as — a shakeout! This value has a 30-day average deviation coefficient of 1.4 compared to the current BTC price, while in the bottoms of the past three bear markets, the deviation coefficient was at least over 2.0 (blue waveform below). A coefficient greater than or equal to 2.0 indicates that when BTC enters the absolute bottom range, its price is less than half of the "average cost of losing p
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