Wimar.X|Apr 04, 2026 10:14
🚨 WARNING: MARKETS ARE NOT PRICING THE NEXT COLLAPSE...
Iran is threatening to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
After Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb is now becoming a new GLOBAL RISK
And if both straits stay BLOCKED, this stops being just an oil story
It becomes a full trade and inflation shock
That is the part most people miss
Hormuz moves about 20 MILLION barrels of oil per day.
At $109 oil, that is about $2 BILLION of oil flow EVERY SINGLE DAY.
And oil has already pumped about 50% in one month
Read that again.
50% in one month.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because if one strait already pushed oil that far, a second strait under threat can make the next move even more violent
Bab el-Mandeb handled about 9.3 MILLION barrels per day before Red Sea traffic got crushed.
At $109 oil, that is about $1 BILLION of oil moving through that route every single day.
Now connect the dots.
Hormuz is the direct oil shock.
Bab el-Mandeb is the shipping shock.
One hits energy flows harder.
The other jams freight, delays cargo, and pushes transport costs higher.
And if both stay under pressure, markets do NOT get one problem.
They get TWO.
- Higher oil.
- Higher diesel.
- Higher shipping costs.
- Higher delivery times.
- Higher inflation pressure.
That is where the real damage starts.
Because once ships stop moving normally through both routes, the market stops pricing a temporary scare and starts pricing duration, shortages, and a much bigger cost shock.
And here is the real danger.
If Brent only pumps from $109 to $136, that is another 25% move.
And that is still far below the more extreme war scenarios already being discussed.
So the point is simple.
Hormuz already showed what one chokepoint can do.
If Bab el-Mandeb becomes the second live threat, the repricing does NOT need to stay small.
Not a dip.
Not a fake panic.
A REAL second wave in oil, shipping, and inflation.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.(Wimar.X)
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