Is the encryption anchored war coming to an end? 1. Current state of war The military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran are still ongoing. Al Jazeera's live broadcast update today shows that, US-Israeli strikes continue across Iran， The targets of the attack include the pharmaceutical and steel factories in Isfahan. The war has not ended. 2. Key Signal - Trump's Statement On April 1st, Trump said 'war on Iran to end in 2-3 weeks', but explicitly stated' no deal needed to end war on Iran ' The White House announced that Trump will deliver a national speech on Wednesday evening (Eastern Time) with the theme of the Iran War Trump threatens to 'oblate' Iran's energy infrastructure if no deal is reached • Request allies to 'get your own oil' as domestic gasoline prices soar 3. Iran's position Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi: Confirms contact with US envoy Witkoff, but denies formal negotiations Iran rejects the concept of 'ceasefire' and demands' complete end to war ' The US proposal is described as' maximalist, unreasonable ' Pakistan led diplomatic mediation is underway 4. Strait of Hormuz Previously blocked, it has now reopened, but analysts warn that 'turmoil would still last months' Crude oil WTI breaks through $100/barrel for the first time since 2002 Has the pricing war for cryptocurrencies ended? Conclusion: Market pricing is based on the expectation that the war may end soon, but it is far from fully priced. Data support: BTC rebounded on March 30th due to Trump's mention of "negotiations with the new regime in Iran," but CoinDesk's headline reads "Bitcoin stems, altcoins jump in liquidity driven relief rally" - this is an oversold rebound, not a trend reversal Nearly half of the circulating BTC is in a loss making state, and long-term holders are selling at a loss Q1 computing power drops for the first time in 6 years, miners turn to AI Oil price of $100+, rising expectations of interest rate hikes, weak liquidity - macro environment still unfriendly to crypto Core judgment: War will not end in an instant. Trump said 2-3 weeks, but Iran refused the negotiation terms, and there is a huge gap in their positions. The market rebound is a short-term behavior driven by emotions, not a structural pricing based on ceasefire agreements. Trump's national speech on Wednesday may be a key catalyst - if a specific ceasefire framework is announced, crypto will truly begin to risk on. Evaluate the direction after the speech on Wednesday is delivered.