The current rebound is on schedule, and we need to wait and see how far we can go. We will not be greedy for a rebound! This is the monthly chart of BTC, and the purple box (between $45K and $72K) is the double top area of the previous cycle and an important chip turnover area before the main uptrend of this round. After reaching a peak of $12K+, BTC has experienced a continuous sharp decline, with the current price of $68K hitting the upper edge of this box, which is the most classic "breakout and retracement" in technical analysis. The continuous solid bearish candlestick at the monthly level indicates that the distribution at the top is very firm, and the selling pressure of the main force has been released to a certain extent. The current monthly chart shows a candlestick with a lower shadow, indicating the presence of spot buying within the purple box, and the short-term downward momentum is beginning to weaken. The main tone of 26 years is "valuation repair" and "deleveraging". In history (such as 2018 and 2022), there have been very few cases of direct V-shaped reversals reaching new highs in the following year after a major peak. Currently, it is in a period of shock recovery after the end of the "initial decline". The market needs several months or even half a year to repeatedly rub around key support levels, clean the trapped plate, and switch hands again. The global macroeconomy is currently likely to be in the stage of "economic recession expectations after the implementation of interest rate cutting cycles" or "liquidity depletion caused by high interest rate maintenance". Without large-scale quantitative easing (massive water release) by the central bank, the cryptocurrency market lacks incremental funds to support the direct launch of the next round of unilateral bull market. Under the game of stock funds, Smart Money will be very cautious and tend to buy blood stained chips on the left side of extreme panic, rather than pulling the market and releasing the huge selling pressure above it at this neither up nor down position.