一起发财|Mar 27, 2026 17:07
The Sovereign Individual discusses the "violent reward theory", which holds that the rise and fall of a country depends on the economic efficiency of the use of violence.
In the era of hunting and farming, violence paid off high, and robbing resources could feed more people. Since the invention of gunpowder technology, small countries have been unable to afford it, and violent economies of scale have tended to concentrate in larger countries.
In this Iran incident, we can see that the framework of 'Sovereign Individuals' underestimated a key variable:' asymmetric resilience '. Iran's proxy network, drone swarms, mines and other cheap weapons have reduced the "cost of violence" in defense.
Even if the US military completely destroys 90% of its facilities, Iran can still prolong the confrontation into a protracted war if it maintains its strategic goals of restricting the strait and destroying other countries' infrastructure.
The United States has also proven to the world that its infrastructure is no longer capable of supporting its position in the martial arts world. The return of the manufacturing industry and the front line of the post Austrian beast face will further retreat towards conservatism.
Manufacturing industry in the United States, metals. The military industry and rare earths have experienced a deep pullback after the surge in the trade war, washing away a large number of chips. Part of the funds leaving high-tech will continue to invest in these heavy asset, long-term narrative sectors.
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