ROUBINI: US MORE LIKELY TO ESCALATE IRAN WAR Nouriel Roubini says there’s over a 50% chance the US escalates in Iran, as backing down risks greater economic and geopolitical damage. He argues escalation could lead to regime collapse and a better medium-term outcome—despite short-term oil spikes—giving the US and Israel incentive to push forward. Still, he warns prolonged conflict could hit global growth and trigger a 1970s-style oil shock, complicating central bank policy and potentially forcing new rate hikes.(*Walter Bloomberg)